An analytical framework for measuring quantum progress, built on published research from Google and other quantum leaders
NEW YORK, May 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Project Eleven today released The Quantum Threat to Blockchains 2026 Report, an analytical framework for measuring progress toward a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC). The model places Q-Day at a baseline of 2033, with optimistic and pessimistic scenarios at 2030 and 2042.
“The report is an explanation of how quantum computers work, and a model for evaluating their progress,” said Alex Pruden, CEO and Co-Founder of Project Eleven. “We present a forecast based on state-of-the-art research, but anyone can use our methodology and add their own assumptions to generate their own forecasts as new information emerges.”
Project Eleven’s report consists of two sections. First, the report outlines an approachable framework for understanding quantum computing, and a model for estimating Q-Day. Second, the authors provide a comprehensive vulnerability analysis of the blockchain ecosystem, with recommendations for enterprises and protocols preparing for Q-Day.
“Every major blockchain that relies on elliptic curve signatures faces the same underlying problem, but the engineering path forward is different for each one,” said Conor Deegan, CTO and Co-Founder of Project Eleven. “Each protocol will have to redesign different parts of their stack to absorb post-quantum signatures. If that work has not already started, it should start now.”
Five years ago, breaking RSA-2048 was estimated to require roughly 20 million physical qubits, and ECDSA (the algorithm securing Bitcoin) had received far less attention from quantum algorithm experts. Recent resource estimates by Google and Oratomic have reduced that baseline by multiple orders of magnitude.
The Quantum Threat to Blockchains 2026 Report is available on the Project Eleven blog.
Alex Pruden and Conor Deegan are available for interview.
About Project Eleven
Project Eleven builds resilient infrastructure and tooling for the post-quantum era. The company develops scalable solutions that strengthen security across a rapidly evolving quantum threat landscape. With deep expertise in cryptography, blockchain, and financial systems, Project Eleven bridges advanced post-quantum research with real-world implementations that prepare the digital asset ecosystem for the future. For more information, visit www.projecteleven.com.
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